Looking for takeoff in U.S. jobs
Written on April 17, 2012 – 5:02 am | by Ashley Johnson
– Sorting out trends in the U.S. labor market is tricky business these days.
There is plenty of evidence to support the view that unemployment is stalled at 8.3 percent for much of the year, and a case to argue that job growth is poised for takeoff.
Three interlocking factors are seen in play – the pace of productivity gains, size of the labor force and the outlook for GDP growth. Dial any one factor up and it can change the jobs outlook significantly.
The consensus for March employment data out on Friday is that 201,000 new jobs were added outside the farm sector, a downshift from the 245,000 average monthly pace the United States has enjoyed since December. This would hold the jobless rate around its current rate of 8.3 percent, unless a surge of people who had been discouraged flood back into the labor market again and again start looking for work.
The optimistic school of economists forecast that job gains could be as high as 275,000 in March and reach 300,000 new jobs a month by later this year.
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S.